Trinidad Drilling
(TSX: TDG, OTC: TDGCF) wasted little time putting part of the USD54
million from its sale of a barge rig project in Indonesia to good
purpose, inking a deal with two unnamed parties for the construction of
seven more drilling rigs for use in Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale, an
unconventional
natural gas play that’s shaping up as one of the key
such resources in the US.
Trinidad announced in May that it
had contracted with “two major North American oil and gas exploration
and production companies” for nine drilling rigs. Both programs are
backed by long-term, take-or-pay contracts, meaning Trinidad’s
utilization rates for the rigs are guaranteed to be 100 percent for the
duration of the respective contracts.
Trinidad’s capital needs
made conversion from an income trust to a traditional corporate format
the most tax-efficient road to growth, a path it chose in January. The
company scaled back its distribution and switched to a quarterly,
rather than monthly, payment. It’s used its newfound flexibility to
rapidly expand its onshore drilling activity in the US, a goal
executives pointed to during the conversion process; moving a greater
share of its operations south reduces its vulnerability to Canada’s
weather-driven seasonality, and unconventional gas drilling has taken
off in the US with the exploitation of resources in Texas and the Rocky
Mountain States.
Trinidad initially expanded into the Barnett
Shale in Texas in 2005, taking advantage of rising demand for rigs
capable of executing more challenging projects. Unconventional plays
such as Barnett and Haynesville require greater technological
sophistication and capital investment to extract natural gas, but
they’re also characterized by low geologic risk.
The recent
announcements represent a collective acknowledgment that Trinidad is
capable of the engineered solutions, design innovations and technology
improvements on fit-for-purpose land rigs that will facilitate
economies of scale and repeatability to produce declining well costs.
Unconventional
natural gas makes up more than 40 percent of US production, and that
share should continue to rise into the foreseeable future. And the
Haynesville Shale could be among the largest North American shale
plays, based on preliminary estimates.
Chesapeake Energy
(
nyse: CHK), the third-largest natural gas producer in the US, said it
“could potentially have a larger impact on the company than any other
play in which it has participated.” In March, Chesapeake announced
plans to develop its 300,000 acres in the Haynesville Shale and expects
to pick up another 200,000 acres in the future.
The “explosive
upside” way to play unconventional resource opportunities is through
the producers; our colleague Elliott Gue, editor of
The Energy Strategist, offers comprehensive coverage of the companies exploiting Haynesville, as well as Texas’ Barnett and others.
Click here for Elliott’s discussion, in
The Energy Letter, of the critical shift that’s led to increased onshore drilling activity.
Trinidad,
on the other hand, represents a less commodity-sensitive opportunity;
now paying a 60 cents Canadian per share annualized
dividend, it’s
yielding about 4.5 percent. It’s a sustainable growth proposition
comparable to the way we suggest gaining exposure to another
unconventional play.
Canadian oil sands Trust (TSX: COS.UN, OTC: COSWF), the publicly traded vehicle for the
Syncrude
partnership, has enjoyed a tremendous run along with the per-barrel
price of oil in 2008. The oil sands are now an established part of the
energy equation, and production in Alberta is critical to meeting
rising global demand.
Pembina Pipeline Income Fund
(TSX: PIF.UN, OTC: PMBIF) holds the exclusive franchise on
transportation for the Syncrude venture, a partnership between major
oil companies on both sides of the border and operated by
ExxonMobil’s Canadian unit.
Pembina’s
profits don’t depend on oil prices or even Syncrude’s overall output
for a given quarter or year. Rather, they grow as Syncrude’s output
does over time, as the venture requires additional pipeline and
transport capacity. Fees are earned based on capacity purchases.
Its
focus on long-term contracts, US expansion and deep drilling make
Trinidad a similar opportunity, proven by its ability to survive its
sector’s two-year stress test. Its corporate status puts it in solid
position to capitalize on improving industry conditions, and its new
deals suggest it’s executing.
Rare Company IndeedThe Bank of Canada (BoC) followed up last Tuesday’s interest-rate announcement with the release Thursday of its quarterly
Monetary Policy Report. The report largely tracked the language of the statement accompanying its interest-rate statement.
The
BoC said “available evidence” indicates the Canadian economy has
bounced back from a first quarter dip and grew at an annualized rate of
0.8 percent in the second quarter. And it says the economy will recover
further, growing at a rate of 1.3 percent in the current quarter, 1.8
percent in the fourth and 2.8 percent in the first half of 2009.
During
a press conference following release of the report, BoC Gov. Mark
Carney pointed out a critical distinction we’ve emphasized many times:
Unlike most industrialized countries, Canada benefits from rising oil
and natural gas prices, and this effect isn’t confined to Alberta and
other producing provinces.
“There are a variety of industries
that feed into the energy industry, including manufacturing industries
in Ontario and other areas of Central Canada; there are wealth effects
in portfolios; there are wage effects for secondary and tertiary
industries spread across the country,” he said.
This money
adds strength to other sectors, including construction and services in
Central Canada, he added: “And that puts us, in the industrialized
countries, in very rare company.”
Speaking Engagements“The
coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco,” a saying
that’s almost a San Francisco cliche, turns out to be an invention of
unknown origin, the coolest thing Mark Twain never said.
The
natural setting is, however, among the most exciting in the US. Venture
west for the San Francisco Money Show Aug. 7-10, 2008, and conduct your
own field study.
Neil George, Elliott Gue and I will discuss
infrastructure, partnerships, utilities, resources and energy, and tell
you what to buy and what to sell in 2008.
Click here or call 800-970-4355 and refer to priority code 011362 to attend as our guest.
I
also have a special invitation for readers to join me and my colleagues
Elliott Gue, Gregg Early and Neil George aboard an exciting 11-day
investment cruise Dec. 1-12 through the Caribbean and Panama Canal.
This
will be a unique opportunity to step away from your daily routines,
relax in one of the most beautiful parts of the world and share
analysts’ knowledge and passion for the markets. During the sail,
you’ll not only explore the cerulean splendor of the Caribbean, but
you’ll also delve deep into current markets in search of the most
profitable opportunities for your portfolios. You’ll also have the rare
chance to sail through one of the world’s engineering marvels, the
Panama Canal.
It’s always a special treat to meet and talk with
subscribers in person, and we couldn’t have picked a better setting
than aboard the six-star Crystal Serenity. This is sure to be an
especially memorable experience. We hope you’ll join us.
For more information, please call 877-238-1270.
Roger Conrad
Roger S. Conrad is
editor of Utility Forecaster, the nation’s
leading advisory on essential services stocks, bonds and preferred stocks. His
proprietary safety rating system evaluates the prospects of every significant
electric, natural gas, telecommunications and water company, including
utility-based mutual funds and foreign utilities. Roger’s penchant for detailed
research and his studied insights into utilities markets have garnered him a
wide audience of subscribers—not to mention a bevy of industry awards for his
perceptive reporting, commentary and investment advice.
He brings the same
enthusiasm and intelligence to Roger Conrad’s Canadian Edge,
an Internet-based publication devoted to uncovering lucrative investment
opportunities in Canadian royalty trusts. Roger’s exhaustive coverage of how
recent changes to Canada’s tax laws will affect these companies has earned him
a reputation as one of the leading authorities on Canadian trusts. Subscribers
and the national media often contact him for information on the latest economic
developments and investment opportunities north of the border.
Roger is also
associate editor of Personal Finance and co-editor of Vital Resource
Investor, a subscription-based service that seeks opportunities for equity
investors in the natural resource markets across the world.
He holds a bachelor’s
degree from Emory University and a master’s degree in international management
from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird). In
addition, he is the author of Power Hungry: Strategic Investing in
Telecommunications, Utilities and Other Essential Services and coauthor of The
Agile Investor and Market Timing for the Nineties with Stephen Leeb.
He is also an avid outdoorsman and baseball fan.
View all articles by Roger Conrad